As June 1st approaches, the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, the first forecasts for 2026 bring rather reassuring news. For the first time since 2017, the leading research institutes are predicting below-average activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean basin.
What the forecasts say
Two major institutions serve as references for hurricane forecasting. Their 2026 numbers point to a moderate season:
- Colorado State University (CSU): 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This represents approximately 75% of the historical average (14 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major).
- AccuWeather: between 11 and 16 named storms, with 3 to 5 direct impacts expected on the US coast.
These projections place the 2026 season well behind recent years, which saw sustained and sometimes exceptional activity.
Why the expected lull?
The main factor cited by specialists is the development of a moderate to strong El Niño in the Pacific, expected during summer and autumn 2026. This climate phenomenon has a direct effect on the Atlantic: it strengthens upper-level wind shear, which disrupts hurricane formation and intensification.
AccuWeather even mentions an approximately 15% probability of a "super El Niño" developing, which could sharply reduce activity late in the season (October-November).
Another factor: sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are currently slightly cooler than normal. This is precisely the area where the tropical waves that threaten the Caribbean islands originate. However, the western Atlantic remains warmer than usual, which could still fuel some localized systems.
What this means for Saint-Martin
Favorable forecasts never mean zero risk. Saint-Martin's own history is the best proof: a single well-positioned hurricane can have major consequences, regardless of the overall seasonal balance.
The official season runs from June 1st to November 30th, with the statistical peak between mid-August and mid-October. This is when vigilance must be at its highest.
Preparing before June 1st
The Préfecture of Saint-Martin issues annual reminders about essential preparation steps. Here is what to plan ahead of the season:
- Water and food: plan for at least 3 days of autonomy with drinking water (2 liters per person per day) and canned food.
- Equipment: flashlights, battery-powered radio, portable charger, first aid kit and essential medications.
- Home: clean gutters, check the roof, identify shutters or plywood panels to protect windows.
- Documents: secure copies of IDs, insurance contracts and emergency numbers.
Warning sirens are installed in Marigot, Quartier d'Orléans and Grand Case. The FR-Alert system also sends notifications to mobile phones in case of imminent danger. Make sure your device is configured to receive them.
Key takeaway
The 2026 hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, mainly thanks to El Niño's influence on the Atlantic. This is a positive outlook for Saint-Martin and the wider Caribbean. But this predicted lull should not lead to complacency. In the Caribbean, preparation remains the best reflex, regardless of the announced trend.